BOECK: A look at the Section VI Playoff Picture heading into Week 8
CLASS AA
(All seven teams in AA get into the Playoffs – No. 1 seed gets first-round bye)
Even though only one team has clinched their seed, Class AA is still pretty straightforward. Lancaster is set to win the possible (extremely likely) three-way tiebreaker with Bennett and Health Sciences (meaning all teams finish 6-1). Lancaster needed to beat Bennett by 7 points or more last week and did so. You can check out the three-way tie-breaking procedure explanation in the Class C South section for an explanation.
If Bennett gets upset and Health Sciences wins in Week 8, then Health Sciences moves to the top seed, since they beat Lancaster and therefore have the head-to-head in a two-way tie.
But as long as there are no upsets, below will be the final standings:
Lancaster
Bennett (w/ WIN or HS loss)
Health Sciences
Jamestown (w/Win or LOCK loss)
Lockport
Niagara Falls
Hutch-Tech
CLASS A
(Two Divisions, Top 4 from each division get into playoffs)
Class A1
We know the top four teams - we’re still putting the finishing touches on the order.
Similar to AA were likely running into a scenario where the top three teams will end up with one loss and neither team beating all the others. That tie-breaking scenario has been solved. West Seneca West needed to beat Williamsville North by 6 points or more last week and did so. The Orchard Park/Clarence game is likely to determine the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds.
However, if Niagara-Wheatfield were to upset Williamsville North, a bit of chaos would ensue. A Williamsville North loss and an OP win, gets the Quakers the top seed over WSW since OP and WSW would be the only 6-1 teams and OP beat the Warhawks. Clarence cannot get any higher than No. 3.
West Seneca West (w/ WN win or OP loss)
Williamsville North (w/ win or OP loss)
Orchard Park/Clarence winner (unless WN loses)
Orchard Park/Clarence loser
Class A2
Class A2 is set with Grand Island beating Williamsville East last week.
Grand Island
Starpoint
Will East
NT
CLASS B
(Two Divisions, Top 4 from each division get into playoffs)
Class B1
If I had written this last week, I would’ve thrown up my hands in the chaos due to the sheer number of scenarios that could’ve played out. Heading into the final week it’s pretty straightforward.
The big game to keep an eye on is McKinley at OC Rivals. This game will determine the order of the top three teams. West Seneca East finished its league schedule with a 6-1 record. McKinley and OC Rivals are 5-1, meaning one team will be 6-1 and the other will be 5-2.
No math needed here. McKinley beat West Seneca East so the Macks get the tiebreaker over the Trojans. West Seneca East defeated OC Rivals so the Trojans get the tiebreaker over OC Rivals.
Maryvale will get the No. 4 seed with a win over Lew-Port. If they lose, it goes to Williamsville South.
If McKinley beats OC Rivals, THEN:
McKinley (6-1)*
West Seneca East (6-1)
OC Rivals (5-2)*
If OC Rivals beats McKinley, THEN:
West Seneca East (6-1)
OC Rivals (6-1)*
McKinley (5-2)*
Maryvale w/ win // Will South w/ MV Loss
Class B2
If Class A2 weren't all set, this would be the easiest division to figure out. Pioneer, Depew and Iroquois are locked into their seeds. As fate would have it, Lackawanna and Olean will face off in the final week, with the winner getting the final playoff spot and the loser going home (or the Chuck Funke Bowl Playoffs).
Pioneer
Depew
Iroquois
Olean/Lackawanna winner
CLASS C
(Two Divisions, Top 4 from each division get into playoffs)
Class C North
No. 1 Barker/Roy-Hart will be the only team to return to the playoffs this year in C North. The top three seeds are set with No. 2 Springville and No. 3 Cleveland Hill clinching post season berths, after spending the last couple seasons on the outside looking in. JFK is in the driver seat for the final spot if they beat 1-6 Akron. A loss for the Bears opens the door for Alden to sneak in, provided they beat Springville.
Barker/RH
Springville
Cleveland Hill
JFK (w/ WIN or Alden LOSS)
Class C South
The two elements that make figuring out playoff scenarios challenging are upsets and teams not all playing one another. Well, that’s exactly what we have in C South.
Losses last week by Falconer and CSP not only took away the opportunity for those teams to clinch playoff spots but also created a plethora of playoff picture possibilities.
There’s a possibility we could end up with as many as four teams with a 4-2 record. There’s also a couple of possibilities that we have three teams with a record of 3-3.
Making things really difficult, C South has nine (9) teams and the teams are only playing six (6) divisional games, meaning each team will not face two of the teams in the division.
I think now would be a good time to go over the Section VI Football tie-breaking procedures.
The first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. Of course, if it's just two tied teams who played each other; Team A beat Team B therefore Team A wins.
In the event three (3) or more teams are tied and have all played each other and one team has beaten all the others, that team is the highest seed. If no single team has beaten all others, the team with the highest Point Differential (based on a 20-point Max/Min) using only the games the tied teams played against each other.
Two important notes here:
The goal of breaking a multiple team tie (three or more teams) is to find the top seed first. Once a top seed is determined, the remaining teams revert back to step one (Head to Head) and so on...
This doesn’t work if the teams who are tied haven’t all played each other
So what do we do then?
Well it comes down to W-L record versus Common Divisional Opponents. Meaning we have to go through each team’s schedule, pick out the common opponents and figure out the teams' records with just those games. If one team, singularly, has a better record than all the others then they win the tiebreaker. (The opposite does not work; ie. eliminating a lower-record team if other teams are tied with a higher record.)
And if we still don’t have a winner (again meaning no team, singularly, has a better record than all the others) we go to the next tiebreaker. Which is point differential in those common-opponent games. The 20-point Max/Min still applies. The last tiebreaker is the fewest points allowed against common opponents.
With all that being said, there’s probably about a dozen scenarios that could play out (plotting every upset), each taking about 30 minutes of plotting and math to determine and double check. And even if I did it or somehow got AI to do it probably would make this guide about 3x as long.
So instead, I’m going to pare it down to give you the results of the most likely scenarios. But first we'll start with the basics:
Falconer clinches the No. 1 seed with a win or a Salamanca loss. They could fall to the No. 4 seed if they lose and Salamanca wins. CSP and Chautauqua Lake/W/B will get in with a win. The winner of Portville/Salamanca gets in.
I was able to determine the winners of three-way ties between CSP/Portville/Chautauqua Lake and CSP/Salamanca/Chautauqua Lake, while also factoring in a win or loss from Falconer.
If Falconer wins or loses + CSP, Portville, CL all win
1. Falconer (5-1)* or (4-2)*
2. CL (4-2)*
3. CSP (4-2)*
4. Portville (4-2)*
If Falconer wins + CSP, CL, SAL all win
1. Falconer (5-1)*
2. CL (4-2)*
3. CSP (4-2)*
4. Salamanca (4-2)*
If Falconer loses + CSP, CL, SAL all win
1. CL (if CSP wins by 19 points or less) (4-2)*
2. CSP (4-2)*
3. Salamanca (4-2)*
4. Falconer (4-2)*
Allegany Limestone and Gowanda still have a shot at getting in with a win but need a lot of help.
CLASS D
(6 Team division, Top two seeds receive a bye in 1st Round)
The top and bottom of Class D, who are facing off in Week 8, have clinched their spots. The middle is still up in the air. Newfane is in the best position to get the No. 2 seed. Wilson can get it with a win and some help. Silver Creek/Forestville defeated Wilson by a hefty margin, giving them a leg up in most tiebreaking situations with the Lakemen.
See the table below with the four scenarios. Read over the above-mentioned tiebreaking procedures for rules on use of point differential.
Randolph
Catt Little Valley
If NF + SC Win | If NF + FE win | If WIL + SC win | If WIL + FE win |
2. Newfane 3. Silver Creek 4. Wilson 5. F/E | 2. Newfane 3. 4. 5. | 2. Newfane 3. Silver Creek 4. Wilson 5. F/E | 2. Wilson 3. Newfane 4. F/E 5. Silver Creek |
-------------- | Dependent on margin of victory in SC/FE & NF/WIL games | -------------- | -------------- |
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