The final week of the regular season has finally arrived. Which means the Section VI Playoff brackets are nearly set.
After spending 4-5 hours of my Saturday writing down chicken scratch and giving my calculator a workout - here's what I believe the picture looks like in all five classes:
CLASS AA
(All seven teams in AA get into the Playoffs – No. 1 seed gets first-round bye)
This class is pretty straightforward. Everyone but Orchard Park and Jamestown is locked into their seeds, those two teams will battle for third and fourth place on Friday.
Bennett
Lancaster
OP/Jamestown winner
OP/Jamestown loser
Frontier
Niagara Falls
Hutch-Tech
CLASS A
(Two Divisions, Top 4 from each division get into playoffs)
Class A1
Clarence clinched first place with their win over Kenmore West along with McKinley's loss to Williamsville North.
Two games this week (Clarence/McKinley, Will North/Lockport) will determine the 2nd-4th place in the Class A1 division.
Here are the four scenarios:
If CLR beats McK & WN beats LOCK | If CLR beats McK & LOCK beats WN | If McK beats CLR & WN beats LOCK | If McK beats CLR & LOCK beats WN |
1. Clarence 2. WS West 3. Will North 4. McKinley | 1. Clarence 2. Lockport 3. WS West 4. Will North | 1. Clarence 2. WS West 3. Will North 4. McKinley | 1. Clarence 2. WS West 3. McKinley 4. Lockport |
As you can see here West Seneca West has clinched a playoff berth.
Lockport must win this week in order to reach the playoffs.
Williamsville North can get in with a loss - but would need some help.
Class A2
We know the four playoff teams that will be coming from Class A2 - it's just a matter of figuring out where they fall. Williamsville East secured fourth place with a win over Hamburg this past week.
This week, Grand Island hosts Starpoint to determine the top seed. Sweet Home has finished divisional play with a 4-1 record, their lone loss to Starpoint. That means there would hold the tiebreaker over a one-loss Starpoint - if the Spartans beat Grand Island.
If GI beats Starpoint | If Starpoint beats GI |
1. Sweet Home 2. Grand Island 3. Starpoint 4. Williamsville East | 1. Starpoint 2. Sweet Home 3. Grand Island 4. Williamsville East |
CLASS B
(Three Divisions; Division winners No. 1-3 seeds, 2nd place No. 4-6 seeds, 3rd place 7-9 seeds; 9th place misses playoffs)
Most teams in Class B have wrapped up their league/divisional schedules so there are only a few games this week that will have an impact on the final standings.
First things first - Lackawanna clinches the No. 1 seed with a win by two points or more. If they lose or win by only one point Maryvale gets the top seed and Lackawanna is No. 2.
A win by Alden over Lackawanna would clinch the Bulldogs the No. 7 seed.
But the game with the greatest impact will be South Park at Health Sciences (Friday, 7 p.m. on NFHS Network and WBFO radio). In fact, the outcome of this game (including the margin of victory) will determine seeds No. 3-8.
The Falcons win - they earn the Class B1 division and No. 3 seed. Pioneer is second in place in the division and No. 4 overall. South Park would end up with the No. 7 or No. 8 seed.
A Sparks win would give the division to Pioneer locking the Panthers in the No. 3 seed and South Park would end up with the No. 5 or No. 6 seed and Health Sciences would fall to No. 7 or 8.
These are the following two most likely scenarios (both of which have Lackawanna beating Alden by 2+ points or more)
If Health Sciences beats South Park | If South Park beats Health Sciences |
1. Lackawanna 2. Maryvale 3. Health Sciences 4. Pioneer 5. Iroquois 6. Depew 7. South Park/Alden 8. Alden/South Park | 1. Lackawanna 2. Maryvale 3. Pioneer 4. Iroquois 5. South Park/Depew 6. Depew/South Park 7. Health Sciences/Alden 8. Alden/Health Sciences |
The slashes above are there because those final seeds will be determined by Point Differntial Average. Luckily, B1 and B3 (whose teams would be in cross-divisional tiebreakers) have the same number of teams. So we can use the number underneath the "+/- (adj)" for each team. This number is determined by how many points a team has their games by (with a maximum of +20 and minimum of -20 per game)
Since the divisions have an uneven number of teams; the following criteria will be used to determine seedings between teams from across divisions;
· Fewest Losses in League Play
· Point differential Average: Total points earned (20 point max) divided by league games played
· Fewest points allowed average in league play.
CLASS C
(Two Divisions, Top 4 from each division get into playoffs)
C North
The C North is set with Medina beating Newfane and Akron winning by forfeit to Eden-North Collins.
Medina
Newfane
Akron
Eden/North Collins
C South
We have our four teams from Class C South who will make the playoffs - we just don't know the order.
Right now, Salamanca leads the division thanks to their 14-7 overtime win over Southwestern this past week. But there's a lot that can happen in the final week of the regular season.
The two games to keep an eye on are Portville/Salamanca and Southwestern/Falconer. It will not only be important who wins those games but by how much. There are eight scenarios (A-H in the table below) that can happen between the two games.
A. Salamanca win + SW win | 1. Salamanca 6-0 2. SW 5-1 3. Portville 4-2 4. Falconer 4-2 |
B. Salamanca win + Falconer win by 14 or more | 1. Salamanca 6-0 2. Falconer 4-2 3. Southwestern 4-2 4. Portville 4-2 |
C. Salamanca win + Falconer win by 13 or less | 1. Salamanca 6-0 2. Portville 4-2 3. Falconer 4-2 4. Southwestern 4-2 |
D. Portville by 6 or more + Falconer win by 13 or less | 1. Portville 5-1 2. Salamanca 5-1 3. Falconer 4-2 4. SW 4-2 |
E. Portville by 4 or less + Falconer win by 14 or more | 1. Salamanca 5-1 2. Portville 5-1 3. Falconer 4-2 4. SW 4-2 |
F. Portville by 6 or more + SW win | 1. Portville 5-1 2. Salamanca 5-1 3. SW 5-1 4. Falconer 3-3 |
G. Portville by 4 or less + Falconer win by 13 or less | 1. Portville 5-1 2. Salamanca 5-1 3. Falconer 4-2 4. SW 4-2 |
H. Portville by 4 or less + SW win | 1. Salamanca 5-1 2. SW 5-1 3. Portville 4-2 4. Falconer 3-3 |
A little housekeeping here.
In the event three (3) or more teams are tied and have all played each other and one team has beaten the all others, that team is the highest seed.
If no single team has beaten all others, the team with the highest Point Differential (based on 20 point max) using only the games played against each other will be the highest seed.
So for example if Portville, Salamanca and SW all end up 5-1 then we determine point-differentical for all three teams from just the Portville/Salamanca, Portville/SW and Salamanca/SW games (with a +/- 20 cap). That's why it's the exact margin of victory is so important.
To simplify the table above a little for you - Salamanca clinches first place with a win. Portville needs to win by six points or more to get first place. Falconer gets at worst third place with a win and can even gets to second place if they win by a large enough margin and get some help. Southwestern can get as high as second place and as low as fourth.
CLASS D
(6 Team division. Top two seeds receive a bye in 1st Round)
CSP travels to Ellicottville to take on the Titans in Week 8 in a game to decide which team gets the top two seeds
Randolph travels to Gowanda to decide the No. 4 and 5 seeds.
CSP/FE winner
CSP/FE loser
Wilson
Gowanda/Randolph winner
Gowanda/Randolph loser
Catt/L. Valley